The Republican Party will lose the 2024 presidential election

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An important disclaimer: the future is unpredictable. 

No matter the amount of research you gather, the trends you uncover or even your faith in personal intuition, you can never truly know what’s ahead. This piece is less a prediction of the future and more a reflection of the current state of the Republican Party.

Upon reflection, their current strategy is the impetus for which they will be defeated in the 2024 presidential election.

The Republican strategy can be divided into two main parts. 

First, bolstered by former President Donald J. Trump and his constituents, the GOP has taken a hardline on enabling the radical minority bloc within their own party. This was best demonstrated by the election of Republican Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, which was temporarily blocked by a group of right-wing dissidents.

After a historic 15 rounds of voting, McCarthy eventually won their support by making personal concessions, such as giving them leadership roles within powerful committees. This approach, however, incentivizes the broader Republican Party to shift further right, reaping the short-term political benefits.

The second element of the Republican strategy is a focus on social issues instead of traditional topics such as the economy, inflation, war and international relations. This is where the strategy falls flat, as hot-topic issues like abortion, transgender rights and gun control illustrate the party’s growing dissonance with the American people.

Republican efforts to roll back abortion infrastructure and LGBTQ+ rights, and defend against broad gun reforms and control — while brandished by their conservative base — is seen by the broader society as disingenuous and harmful. From young voters to the business community, the Republican party is distancing itself from representing our nation’s identity and interests.

These issues surrounding identity politics are summed up best through the Republican Party’s catch-all term of “wokeness.” According to recent polls, 69% of Americans consider themselves “woke” on the issue of accepting people who are gay, lesbian or bisexual, while 29% consider themselves “anti-woke.”

While the Republican Party’s stance on social issues becomes more rigid, the general public is increasingly more accepting and diverse. This widening contradiction shows the GOP is failing to adapt to a shifting socioeconomic landscape.

A major issue working against the Republican Party is gun control. Despite a clear majority in bipartisan support for sensible gun control measures, the party has maintained an absolutist stance for supporting pro-gun causes. This unwillingness to address the issue has ultimately backfired, as young voters are galvanized to take action. This is best shown through recent events in Tennessee, where the GOP expelled two Democratic lawmakers for leading a youth protest after a school shooting — a reminder of how the party’s approach is retaliatory and self-isolating.

Events like this have a devastating impact on the party’s chances. Polls indicate the Republican Party has radicalized young voters into being the most liberal bloc of the electorate. Unless the party change their stances, this trend is likely to continue. Furthermore, with each new mass shooting, the GOP’s resistance to gun control faces renewed scrutiny, making it difficult for them to win over voters on this issue.

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One of the most prominent shortcomings of this overreaching Republican strategy is the recent Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. With a majority on the bench at stake, both Democrats and Republicans came into this race understanding the influence the outcome could hold on issues like abortion, gerrymandering, identity rights and even pathways to influence the 2024 presidential election.

Janet Protasiewicz, the Democratic candidate, won what is now the most expensive judiciary race in American history, with over $40 million being spent on the election. Protasiewicz credited her success to the high turnout of young voters who were energized by her focus on key social issues during her campaign.

Besides young voters, the GOP appears to be losing support from the business community, too. Many corporations are now taking a public stance on the party’s position on social issues — a stark contrast from the past. 

For example, after Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk ruled to federally block a popular abortion pill, more than 400 senior executives of pharmaceutical and biotech companies criticized the decision and requested it be repealed. The modern business community is more diverse and open-minded than ever before, and they recognize how any significant change against that would negatively disrupt their industries.

In conclusion, the Republican Party has taken on a losing edge. With their current strategy, they are becoming less favorable to the majority of Americans as they drift further to the right. They still have a chance of recovering provided they can reconsider their strategy and look for methods to engage a larger audience. 

Despite this, the GOP is doubling down on intra-party radicalization and a lack of sensitivity for a changing society. Consequently, it is likely Republicans will lose the election in 2024. People will not go backward — not in the long run.

Jason Li is a sophomore studying Finance, Investment and Banking at UW-Madison. Do you believe the Republican Party will win or lose the 2024 presidential election? Let us know at 

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